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EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

How frequently are employment projections updated?

The 10-year long-term employment projections are updated every two years while the 2-year short-term forecasts are updated annually.

Are these employment projections accurate?

Employment projections by industry and occupation are point-in-time estimates and are best used as an indicator. Their development is based on trends and known economic activities. However, unexpected events may occur during the projection period that could impact employment activities.

Why are base year employment totals from projections different from other data sources, such as the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)?

Employment projections data are more inclusive, and therefore higher in total, than the QCEW and OES programs which focus on individuals covered under Unemployment Compensation. Projections data also include the self-employed, agricultural workers, Federal government workers, private household staff, and unpaid family members.

Are annual openings the same as turnover?

No. Annual openings include two components – openings due to industry growth and openings due to replacement needs. Replacement needs reflect those who leave the occupation altogether while turnover would also include churn of people within the occupation (i.e. a cashier leaving one store to go work as a cashier in another store). Therefore, replacement needs are lower in volume than occupational turnover.

Is there a way to connect industry and occupational projections data?

Yes, an industry-occupational matrix does exist. This matrix identifies occupations that are commonly found within a given industry (the staffing pattern) as well as which industries are most likely to employ a given occupation (the inverse staffing pattern).